The signal and the noise

Hardcover, 544 pages

English language

Published April 29, 2012 by Penguin Books.

ISBN:: 978-1-84614-752-4

(1 review)

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise , the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils …

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise , the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.

3 editions

Thom reviewed The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

Review of 'The Signal and the Noise' on 'Goodreads'

5 stars

Greatly enjoyed this book, and not just because it touches on baseball, weather, games and politics. Very savvy explanations of how too much data makes finding insights harder and not easier, and how a Bayes interpretation (properly applied) can provide the best predictions. An excellent point towards the end about how predictions should be judged on how they perform in the future rather than how they apply to past data.

Well footnoted, indexed, and edited. The epub was not the fastest read - will probably buy this when the revised version comes out as a trade paperback. Recommended.